Overcoming
Uncertainty and Controlling Risk in Planning a New Commuter Rail
Service
(JRC2010-36252) – Presented at the Joint Rail Conference, April
2010, in Urbana, IL
This paper presents scenario planning strategies
used to identify and resolve uncertainties and risks when planning
and developing commuter rail services. While commuter rail service
is one of the oldest modes of public transportation, it has garnered
renewed attention from urban planners because it can operate over
existing railroad infrastructure. While using existing infrastructure
reduces costs compared to other passenger rail modes, commuter rail
can still be expensive relative to other urban infrastructure investments.
Moreover, doubts may arise as to the service’s ability to accommodate
future changes in transportation and development patterns.
Scenario planning theory, developed to facilitate
land-use planning decisions, can be adapted to address key issues
in developing commuter rail. Applying scenario planning to commuter
rail development allows planners to examine alternatives and evaluate
outcomes in terms of costs, resource commitments, bottlenecks, and
meeting uncertain demand projections. Moreover, employing this strategy
helps identify potential conflicts between objectives and can facilitate
consensus among concerned parties.
The author developed and implemented this
strategy while planning for proposed commuter rail service to be
developed and operated with state and local funds. In this case,
the application of scenario planning broadened a narrow focus on
service initiation to a more comprehensive process of engaging uncertain
information in order to identify negative outcomes – ultimately
shifting the project’s course.
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